ECOCIDE in Ukraine - 3: Time bomb for Moldova

Investigations awarded by the Association of Environmental Journalists and Ecological Tourism from Moldova

The second part can be read here.

Ecocide in Ukraine, provoked by Russian military aggression, which has been going on for almost two years, has consequences for neighboring countries as well, with Moldova and Romania being the first victims. Putin's plans do not stop at the destruction of infrastructure and strategic industrial facilities of Ukraine, but are purposefully aimed at everything related to the environment: soil, water, ecosystems. Increased concentrations of pollutants were recorded in water, air, and soil during certain periods. Animals and birds migrated from Ukraine to neighboring states, escaping from fires and explosions.

Environmentalists say that the consequences of the war on the environment are comparable to a ticking time bomb: soil contaminated with chemical particles will continue to bleed for many years, which will lead to catastrophic consequences, and hazardous substances will eventually reach far beyond Ukraine. The Moldovan authorities admit that they do not have enough specialized resources for detailed monitoring of environmental changes to determine how big the impact of the war in a neighboring country is on nature, but they realize that the negative consequences will be felt in two to three years.
 

Explosions on the territory of Moldova

October 31, 2022. Strong explosions scared the inhabitants of the northernmost settlement of Respublika Moldova - Naslavcha of Oknytsia district, on the border with Ukraine. A Russian rocket shot down by Ukrainian defense forces exploded on the territory of the Republic of Moldova. "We were very scared. We lay down on the ground. We didn't know where to hide. We are on the border," a resident of the village tells us in Ukrainian. Her neighbor remembers how she heard a rumble, then an explosion, followed by two more, and black smoke rose, and then flew over the village: "I thought it was a military plane, then I saw a rocket, it almost hit the neighbor's house. I thought that the war had started here. We didn't know what to do. It was terrible," says the woman. The consequences of the explosion were severe: 30 households suffered - windows and roofs were damaged. In some houses, the front door has come off its hinges. The school in this village stopped its activities, and the police surrounded the settlement with security tape and cordoned off the place where the rocket fell.

Fotografile au fost difuzate de ministerele de Interne și al Părăriăi ale Republicii Moldova

On that day, October 31, Russia struck with missiles and drones the Novodniestrian hydroelectric junction on the Dniester, on the territory of Ukraine, which is locate 10 km from the Naslavcha dam, in the Republic of Moldova.

The Ministry of Defense of Moldova sent a group of sappers to Naslavch to study the territory after fragments of a Russian rocket fell on the territory of the Republic of Moldova. The department clarified that this time the Russian missile flew not over the airspace of the Republic of Moldova, but near the border of our country. The shrapnel fell after the missile was shot down by the Ukrainian anti-aircraft system. "In the context of the relevant incident, we inform you that the air surveillance systems of the National Army did not detect illegal flights in the airspace of the Republic of Moldova. We also note that the fragments of the downed missile were not detected by radar stations due to their size and small reflection surface", - explained in Chisinau Ministry of Defense. 

Novodnestrovsky hydropower complex in Ukraine

The Novodniester hydropower complex in Ukraine, on the border with the Republic of Moldova, consists of two hydroelectric plants, a hydroaccumulating hydroelectric plant, and three lakes: two on the Dniester river bed - the central basin and the buffer basin - and the third on the right bank of the river.

The existing Ukrainian hydroelectric power plants on the Dniester produce 4 billion kWh per hour, which is equivalent to the annual electricity consumption of Moldova, and they represent a target that Russia intends to attack. Before the beginning of aggression from Russia, Ukraine expected to install the fourth turbine, and thus the hydroelectric plant was to become the largest in Europe and the sixth in the world in terms of capacity, according to the estimates of the Ukrhydroenergo agency.

For several years, there have been disputes between Moldova and Ukraine regarding the negative impact of the Novodnestrovsky HPP on the ecosystems of the Dniester River.

The infographic was created on the site uploads.knightlab.com.

Expert: "The consequences of the explosion of the Novodnestrovsky HPP dams will be catastrophic for Moldova".
 

After the explosion in October 2022, residents of Naslavchi, and indeed the entire region, fear that the Russians will again attack the Novodnistrovskaya hydroelectric station. They understand that damaging it or destroying at least one of the reservoir's dams would mean a humanitarian catastrophe. A large amount of water can absorb many populated areas and destroy everything in its path over a long distance.

The fear of residents of the region intensified especially after the tragedy in Novo-Kakhovka in southern Ukraine on June 6, 2023. The destruction of the Kakhovka Dam affected drinking water, food supplies and ecosystems extending to the Black Sea. Experts warn that the long-term consequences of this accident will be devastating.

Barajul de la Naslavcea, acum prorpietate a Ucrainei. Foto: Marin Bogonovschi 

Environmental expert Valeriu Cazac told us that the fears of residents of Naslavchi and neighboring villages about a possible explosion of the dams of the Novodnistrovsky hydroelectric power station are completely justified; the consequences will be catastrophic.

“In the case of the Novokakhovskaya HPP there was no such infrastructure downstream, but in the case of the Novodnistrovsky hydroelectric complex, especially in the case of the detonation of the dam of HPP No. 1. 1, we could witness a domino effect by destroying the dams of hydroelectric power station No. 1. 2 from Naslavchi and Dubasari hydroelectric station,” the expert said. The distance along the Dniester River from Naslavchi to Dubasari is about 250 km.

Expertul în ecologie Valeriu Cazac. Foto: Marin Bogonovschi 

“In the case of Novaya Kakhovka, the longitudinal profile of the Dnieper is flatter, and in the case of the Dniester, the angle of incidence is large, the relief is dissected. We have several settlements and infrastructure located downstream from the complex,” the expert states. “Therefore, starting from Naslavchi and ending with Palanka, a disaster could happen to us. Otaci, Soroca, Rezina, all these cities could be erased from faces of the earth. In the case of Nova Kakhovka, the speed of spread has decreased, and in the case of the Dniester, the speed of spread is very high. I don’t think that anything could be evacuated,” says environmental expert Valeriu Cazac.
 

Russian missiles in the airspace of Moldova

Since the beginning of the military aggression, at least four Russian missiles launched from the Black Sea at targets in Ukraine have flown over the airspace of the Republic of Moldova. Three more missiles shot down by the Ukrainian defense fell on the territory of Moldova, one of them exploded. Downed drones or remnants of missiles also fell on the territory of Romania.

The first cases of Russian missiles flying over the airspace of Moldova were observed a few months after the start of the war, in May 2022. The picture, taken on May 9, shows the trail left by the rocket, which caused panic among the residents of the village of Talmaz in the Stefan-Vod district, a settlement located approximately 50 kilometers from the Moldovan-Ukrainian border. It was published on the social network by the ex-vice speaker of the Chisinau Parliament, Alexandra Slyusar, but the Moldovan and Ukrainian authorities did not confirm at the time that it was a rocket launched by the Russians towards Ukraine.

The first case of interception of Russian missiles by Moldovan specialized structures in the airspace of the Republic of Moldova occurred in October of the same year. On the morning of October 10, three Russian missiles flew over the airspace of the Republic of Moldova. The Ministry of Defense in Chisinau declared that "in the context of airstrikes by Russian aviation on several cities of Ukraine in the period from 8:33 to 9:02, specialized defense structures detected three air targets that flew over the airspace of the Republic of Moldova." One of the rockets flew in the direction of Chernaya - Mogilev-Podolsk (Ukraine) - Rybnitsa - Soroky - Mogilev-Podolsk, the second - Chernaya - Voronivka (Ukraine) - Rybnitsa - Rudy (Soroky), and the third rocket passed over Chernaya (Ukraine). ) - the village of Popenku (Republic of Moldova) - Chineshkutsi (Floreshty) - in the direction of Ukraine. These goals are confirmed by the responsible structures of the defense ministries of Romania and Ukraine. At the same time, the targets were monitored by the monitoring systems of the State Enterprise for the Use of Airspace and Air Traffic Services MOLDATSA. These targets were dangerous to the infrastructure of the Republic of Moldova and, in particular, to civil aircraft flying over the country's airspace, the Ministry of Defense said.

On February 10, 2023, a Russian missile again flew through the airspace of the Republic of Moldova. The information was confirmed by the Ministry of Defense, which stated that the missile flew over the city of Mocra in the Transnistrian region, and then over the city of Cosauti, Soroca region, in the direction of Ukraine. The missile was launched from the Black Sea. At the time, authorities in Kyiv said a Russian missile could also have flown over Romanian airspace, but authorities in Bucharest would not confirm this.

A few days after this incident, on February 14, 2023, the airspace of the Republic of Moldova was closed for several hours due to the appearance of a small unidentified object similar to a weather balloon on the border with Ukraine, near the city of Soroca. The Moldovan authorities did not provide any other more specific details. Information was spread in the public space that it could be a Russian drone. Representatives of the press service of the Ministry of Defense refused to provide details on this matter.

After the discovery of the rocket on February 10, Chairman of the Chisinau Parliament Igor Grosu told the press that on that day several Russian missiles and drones passed near the border with Moldova: “I realized that one was shot down in the south. Unfortunately, some continued their flight. This happened today morning while we were here, and it’s terrible,” said the head of the legislative assembly. The defense structures of Moldova neither confirmed nor denied the speaker’s statements.
Studiul „Impactul războiului dus de Russia în Ucraina asupra mediului”, actualizat în noiembri 2023  

Criminal case

The Prosecutor's Office for Combating Organized Crime and Special Cases of Moldova (PCCOCS) opened a criminal case regarding the flight of a missile over Moldovan airspace on October 10, 2022 and the explosion of another near the city of Naslavcea Ocnita on October 31, 2022. The latest case is being investigated under an article of the Criminal Code that provides for the delivery, placement, commissioning or detonation of an explosive device or other lethal device.

“The criminal case was opened as a result of the investigation of the facts investigated in the framework of the criminal process initiated last week and the presentation of relevant materials to PCCOCS prosecutors. The case is being investigated through the prism of two offenses. Thus, the situation with the flight of missiles over the airspace on October 10 is being investigated through the prism of the offense , provided for by the Criminal Code in terms of violation of flight rules, which means entry, air transit of the territory of the Republic of Moldova without the established permit, or other violation of flight rules in the airspace of the Republic of Moldova,” says the press release of the Prosecutor General’s Office.

Prosecutors said they would seek additional information from national agencies as well as jurisdictions through whose airspace the missiles in question flew.

Minister of Environment: “The consequences of the war will be felt in Moldova in 2-3 years”

In each case, specialists carefully examine and analyze the impact on the environment, says Minister of the Environment Rodica-Iordanka Iordanov. “When we talk about pollution, we have to consider the cumulative effect. On the territory of the Republic of Moldova there are no obvious changes or pollution directly related to the war in Ukraine. On the territory of Ukraine, teams of mobile experts work very quickly and document immediately after explosions and battles; they are very well equipped and can establish the level of pollution, the origin of heavy metal particles or even radioactive residues. They take samples of air, soil and water, and if there are dead animals or destroyed plants, they determine the level of pollution and pollutants. They have a very strong team of prosecutors who bring criminal cases. In Moldova there is currently no data on pollution resulting from explosions. We do not have such results, there is no pollution exceeding the permissible critical level, after all, the distance from the border to the place where military operations are taking place is quite large,” says Iordanka-Rodika Iordanov.

The consequences of the war will affect the environment of Moldova in two to three years. “We also discussed this with our academic community and came to the conclusion that we will face the consequences of pollution in two to three years. Firstly, due to the movement of water, soil, plants and food, as well as due to the winds that carry particles generated during explosions and weapons. And then we can determine the impact of war on the environment.”
 

Foto: Marin Bogonovschi

The head of the Ministry of Ecology admits that no constant water measurements are carried out, although at the beginning of the war some analyzes of water in the Dniester showed slight discrepancies between the parameters usual for that period and those recorded since the beginning of the war. Moldova needs more modern technical equipment, and work in this direction is underway, the official said, declaring that the French Meteorological Agency is ready to help our country install automated networks for monitoring air and water. “As for the Dniester, we held several negotiations with the Ukrainian side on the creation of a joint system for monitoring water flowing into the Republic of Moldova. Previously, we did not come to a common denominator on this issue. Now we are much more open. We hope that through the projects we initiate in 2024, we will renew these discussions,” says the Minister of the Environment.

Jordanian-Rodika Jordanov also says that environmental experts suggest that the 2023 drought could be one of the consequences of the war. It may be a consequence of large-scale fires in Ukraine after the bombing, especially forest burning. Environmental experts are expressing concern that as forests and reserves burn, the destruction of ecosystems could lead to the emergence of arid areas in the region.

“The consequences of the destruction of the Novokakhovskaya dam will entail the emergence of an arid zone, which will also affect the Republic of Moldova, even if we are talking about the Dnieper River basin and not the Dniester. If this reservoir is not restored, there will be consequences for the Dniester River, where birds will migrate and new diseases may appear,” states the Minister of Environment. 
 

Director of the Association of Environmental Journalists Lilia Kurki believes that the Moldovan authorities should constantly monitor everything that may be related to the war in Ukraine, so that they can implement policies to prevent certain harmful consequences for the environment, be able to promptly inform the population about the dangers, but also about how to protect yourself, what to pay attention to in order to avoid the consequences of pollution, food contamination, etc. “Specialized authorities have little to say when you ask them for information about the environmental impact of the war in Ukraine because there is no systematic monitoring to determine direct environmental impacts. For two years now there has been a war on the border of Moldova, at this stage it is already possible to draw clear conclusions on individual segments related to the environment - are there any changes, the consequences of bombings, fires in Ukraine. Over the past two years, we have had more acid rain than in previous years, but experts from government agencies cannot say whether they are related to the war or not,” says Liliya Kurki. The journalist believes that environmental authorities should provide more data on the condition environment, and information about the consequences of war on the environment must be constant and up-to-date.
 

The Transnistrian region is a powder keg of the Republic of Moldova

Environmental authorities in Chisinau are currently unable to control the Transnistrian region, which is ruled by a separatist regime under the Russian Federation. The border of the Republic of Moldova with Ukraine from the side of the separatist region is about 400 km. Ukraine has closed all border crossings in the region since the start of the war and blew up a bridge connecting the Odessa region to Transnistria, most likely to prevent a Russian advance from this pro-Russian separatist region in the east of the Republic of Moldova.

The concerns of a number of experts in the context of military aggression in Ukraine have increased, especially in connection with weapons and ammunition depots located in the Transnistrian region. They remain from Soviet times and are currently managed by Russian troops stationed there. One of the largest warehouses is located in the village of Kobasna near Tiraspol. It is not known exactly how many tons of ammunition are stored in the warehouse, since an inspection could not be organized due to the reluctance of the Russian side. According to unofficial information, there may be about 20 thousand tons of weapons and ammunition from the Soviet period, inherited from the former 14th Army of the Soviet Union, as well as from the former GDR and Czechoslovakia. According to a study by the Academy of Sciences of Moldova, a possible explosion of a military warehouse in Cobasna can be compared to the explosion of a 10-kiloton nuclear bomb.

“The weapons depots in Kobasna are a priority issue for our country. If any trouble happens there, we will become direct victims. These tens of thousands of tons of unknown, expired ammunition pose an international problem and a continental danger. It is unknown what kind of weapons are stored there, perhaps chemical or biological,” says environmentalist Alecu Renita. The expert believes that now the state’s efforts should be focused on actions that would strengthen security in the region.

Air

The Environmental Protection Agency is responsible for monitoring air quality in the Republic of Moldova, which carries out measurements through a national monitoring network with 6 stations located in populated areas of the Northern, Southern and Central regions. Moldova is fully covered; there are gray areas that are not included in the statistics. The corresponding monitoring system covers only the municipalities of Chisinau, Balti, Bendery, as well as Tiraspol and Rybnitsa on the left bank of the Dniester. Two more automatic monitoring stations are located in Rezina and Leova.

Of the total amount of pollutants monitored in 2020-2022, the average annual concentration exceeding the established limits was recorded for nitrogen dioxide in both the municipalities of Chisinau and Balti, but this trend is decreasing, according to information provided by the Ministry of Environment.

Environmental Protection Agency experts say there are higher levels of pollutants on certain days, depending on how the wind is blowing, but a direct link to events in Ukraine is difficult to establish. Although they admit that the acid rain that fell over the past two years could be generated by explosions occurring in Ukraine, there is no specialized research in this area in the Republic of Moldova.

The state of air quality can be monitored in real time on the website of the Environmental Protection Agency, as well as at the air monitoring station in Mateuti, Rezina - concentrations of monitored parameters in µg/m3, nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO) and suspended particles with a mass fraction of 10 microns (PM10). Current information about the air situation can be downloaded from the agency's website.

Researcher Victoria Nistreanu told us that the migration of animals from forests destroyed by bombing and fires caused by them should not affect the Republic of Moldova, at least in the coming years. We are “saved” by the fact that there are very few forested areas in the areas bordering Ukraine, so, most likely, animals will seek shelter in the forests of the Carpathian region. However, local residents of some settlements in northern Moldova say that over the past two years the number of wolves hunting sheep in populated areas has increased, as well as the number of wild boars. The Ministry of Ecology has recorded an increase in the number of wild boars and deer in forests near the border with Ukraine and believes that these animals are migrating due to the noise produced by shells in areas where fighting is taking place. As for wolves, ministry experts admit that their numbers have increased over the past year, but say that they are migratory animals and it is natural for them to migrate from one area to another.

The number of birds has also increased, for example, flocks of swans were observed on the Dniester, in 2023 more than in previous years. Several Internet users even managed to photograph flocks of swans on the Dniester, in Soroki, in the last days of 2023. Environmentalists associate this with the war in Ukraine.
 

Lebede pe Nistru la Soroca. Foto: Cătălina Plinschi

“In the long term, the destruction of habitats will lead to the redistribution of animals, primarily within Ukraine. The harmful effects of this cruel intervention will be visible years later. It is possible that due to pollution, sick chicks with abnormalities will appear,” says the researcher.
 

Several stations monitoring radiation levels around the clock

The situation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (Ukraine, occupied by the Russian aggressor from the very beginning of the war) keeps not only Ukraine and neighboring countries, but also the whole of Europe in suspense. It is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe and one of the ten largest in the world.

Before the war, the Republic of Moldova had 5 automatic gamma radiation monitoring stations operated by the National Agency for the Regulation of Nuclear and Radiological Activities (ANRANR), a specialized administrative body created by the Government under the Ministry of the Environment. The agency also had a mobile radiological monitoring station used to identify areas with elevated gamma radioactive levels. Nuclear experts conducted so-called raids or inspections to detect unmanaged sources of radioactive elements.
The war in Ukraine and the heightened anxiety associated with the ZaporoZaporizhzhia nuclear power plant forced the authorities in Chisinau to develop a system for monitoring radioactivity levels, and in July 2023, eight automatic stations of the IRMIS type were installed, which continuously monitor the level of radiation in Moldova. The data is processed and presented to the public through the Environmental Protection Agency in daily bulletins.

An IRMIS type monitoring station is installed on the territory of the State Hydrometeorological Service. The stations collect real-time information about radiation levels in a country, sharing data with national authorities as well as the International Atomic Energy Agency's IRMIS network in Vienna. This center operates 24 hours a day and sends alerts in case of deviations from the norm - this happens with any station, regardless of where it is located (not only on the territory of the Republic of Moldova, but almost throughout the entire globe, with the exception of some states not included to the International Atomic Energy Agency), according to a recent Ecopresa analysis.
In Moldova, unlike Ukraine and European countries, it is not yet possible to monitor the radiation situation on a map in real time. The information is presented on the EPA website in the form of scanned texts. The radiological situation in Ukraine can be seen using the first environmental chatbot in Ukraine. It provides access to air quality, radiation, environmental data, as well as a map and an independent network of air quality sensors. The website www.saveecobot.com can also be accessed via Viber or Telegram.
 

Information about the radioactive background at the European level, including in Ukraine, can be found on the Internet and on aninteractive map that anyone can see.

The article is part of a journalistic investigation conducted in cooperation with journalists of the Bureau of Investigation in Lviv, Ukraine, with the support of Journalismfund Europe. The first and two articles can be read here and here.

Cornelia Cozonac (Moldova), Taras Zozulinskyy (Ukraine)